Most rankings assign arbitrary weights to dozens of metrics. We use one outcome: 6-year graduation rate, compared to what a school's incoming students would predict.
We fit a multiple regression that predicts graduation rate from three properties of incoming students: median SAT, percentage on Pell grants (low-income proxy), and percentage of first-generation college students. Each school's performance score is the gap between its actual graduation rate and the rate predicted for its student profile. A score of +5.2 means the school graduates 5.2 percentage points more students than expected.
We control for these incoming-student factors (not school choices like financial aid or class size) so the residual measures what the school adds, not who it admitted. Pell% and first-gen% capture meaningful headwinds — a school serving many low-income, first-generation students that still graduates them well is doing harder work than the raw rates show.
Schools included: 4-year, bachelor's-granting, non-profit main campuses (no branch/satellite campuses) with 200+ undergraduates that report all required data fields.
Model fit (R²): R² is the share of variation in graduation rates that the model explains from incoming-student data. Our model has R² ≈ …, meaning roughly that fraction of why schools differ in graduation rates is accounted for by SAT, Pell%, and first-gen%. The rest — the part that produces each school's score — reflects a mix of genuine school effectiveness and factors we don't control for (financial aid generosity, support programs, major mix, regional economy, cohort-to-cohort noise). Treat the score as a meaningful signal but not a precise verdict.
Badge key
- HBCU Historically Black College or University — institutions established before 1964 with the principal mission of educating Black Americans.
- HSI Hispanic-Serving Institution — accredited, degree-granting institutions with at least 25% full-time-equivalent Hispanic undergraduate enrollment.
Data: U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard (Most Recent Cohorts, Institution-Level)
| # | School | State | Type | Enrollment | Median SAT | Pell % | 1st Gen % | Grad Rate | Expected | Score |
|---|